Tough one last night, as UAB outgains Southern Miss, but fumbles it away 4 times.
PLAYS THIS WEEK:
UCLA +3 Over Colorado
I am very high on this UCLA team (loved their future to win the Pac 10 at 15-1), especially on defense, where I think they will have a top 10 pass defense and overall defense. And they will need to use every bit of it, as Colorado looked sharp offensively against Colorado State. But Colorado's defense was equally as bad as their offense was good, giving up nearly 600 yards of offense in their win. UCLA's offense will be it's weak spot, I think, but they should have enough offense to attack what I think is a very vulnerable defense. UCLA has some revenge here as well, losing a home game to Colorado last year by 2 TD's as a double digit favorite. Colorado is a weak home favorite over time, covering only 36% as a HF. Reasons to lay off - Colorado is at home, and a FG is a fair number to lay for one decent club against another. UCLA is starting Matt Moore at QB, who has really only 2 games of experience. In a hostile environment, he may make some mistakes.
UNLV -11 Over Kansas
As far as I can see, UNLV star receiver Earvin Johnson will play after being suspended. UNLV pulled out a W last week without him, but with him, I expect a lot of fireworks from the UNLV offense against a pass defense that I have ranked 101 against the pass. UNLV was a pass biased offense last week versus Toledo, and no reason that it should change this weekend. Kansas will pass as well, but UNLV pass defense was very impressive against Toledo last week, giving up only 4.5 YPA. In addition, Kansas is a weak home dog, only covering 29% the last 7 years in this role. UNLV is a good road favorite as well, hitting 4 out of 6 the last 7 years. Reasons to stay off - big number to lay on the road with a team that is not exactly a powerhouse. They also struggle on turf traditionally and they did make a lot of mental miscues against Toledo, which is worrysome.
SOUTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA OVER 37
This one may look a bit crazy, considering the circumstances. Virginia is without QB Schaub, and pitched a shutout against Duke last week. South Carolina could only muster 14 points against the Ragin Cajuns last week. Thus it appears obvious that it will be a yawner of a game. However, I think that this line is way too low here. South Carolina should struggle against the run this year, and Virginia should be able to take advantage of that, especially since they will probably run more than they normally would with the backup QB in there. Also, Virginia could be vulnerable in the secondary, despite it's performance against Duke, and I think the Cocks will be much better on O than they were last week. The reasons to lay off are obvious, but I think that the linesmaker has severly overcompensated this line.
STANFORD -13.5 Over San Jose State
SJ State was horrendous last week versus Florida and equally unimpressive against Grambling Week 1. Two bad games, they must be bad. So, it depends on what you think of Stanford here. I think Stanford will be very solid defensively this season in all phases, and shouldn't have much trouble getting on the board against a porous SJ defense, despite the fact that I think Stanford will be weak offensively for most of the season. Stanford has shellacked this team the last 2 years, and I think they will put it to them again this year. Reasons to lay off - rivalry game, anything could happen. SJ takes this one seriously, and until the last 2 years, Stanford didn't. San Jose has played 2 games so far, Stanford 0. I think this is generally overrated, and especially so here, but some cappers take this phenomenon very seriously.
MEMPHIS +8 Over Mississippi
I thought the Rebs would crush Vandy last week, and they were lucky to even win the game. They are pass happy, and I think that plays right into Memphis' strength on D, which looks to be their secondary (I have them projected as a top 10 secondary). Mississippi D isn't bad, but Memphis can move the ball with their experienced QB Wimprine and RB Williams, who averaged nearly 7 yards per carry. Memphis takes this game very seriously, as it is a chance to knock off an SEC team, and at home, the house should be rocking. Reasons to lay off - Memphis looks to be a little soft against the run to me, so if the Rebs can get a running attack going, it could open up Manning for some big plays. Ole Miss has handled Memphis in the past, covering 12 out of 18 lifetime, and is a solid road favorite of 8-3 the last 7 years.
SYRACUSE/NORTH CAROLINA OVER 52.5
The Orange secondary was Orange Juice last year, and I don't think they get much better this year, which could spell problems on Saturday against a passing team like UNC. However, I think Syracuse will be better overall, and I think offensively will be a tremendous football team. This team should play a lot of shootouts, and with UNC's defense not being very tough either, this game may hit the 70's with ease. Reasons to lay off - Syracuse secondary was awful last year, but they may get better than expected improvement. UNC offense showed me zero against FSU, and if Durant struggles, I don't know how UNC scores.
Leans this week:
SAN DIEGO STATE +32
PURDUE -10.5
NOTRE DAME -6
AUBURN/GEORGIA TECH OVER 40.5
UCLA/COLORADO UNDER 55
COLORADO STATE/CALIFORNIA UNDER 62.5
NEW MEXICO/TEXAS TECH UNDER 60
LSU -11.5
STANFORD/SAN JOSE UNDER 59.5
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +28.5
TCU -24.5
Good luck to all,
HW
